Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370

bayesian-method-in-the-search-for-mh370

Title: Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370

Authors: Samuel Davey, Neil Gordon, Ian Holland, Mark Rutten, Jason Williams

License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

About The Book:

This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time series estimation methods were used to produce a probability distribution of potential MH370 flight paths.

It provides details of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics, satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects and radar data were constructed and calibrated. The probability distribution was used to define the search zone in the southern Indian Ocean.

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“Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370” describes the particle-filter based numerical calculation of the aircraft flight-path probability distribution and validates the method using data from several of the involved aircraft’s previous flights.

Finally, it is shown how the Reunion Island flaperon debris finds affects the search probability distribution.

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